The Housing Market in New Zealand: Mid-year outlook

With 2024 being heralded as a recovery year from 2023, it is important to remember that the economic factors at play have ensured that yes, the housing market has recovered somewhat, but no, it is not a return to the boom times of our post-pandemic times.

The Harcourts network reports indicate that while sales numbers are tracking ahead of last year, we are not seeing a flush of investors rushing forward to buy. This is despite the government reducing the Brightline test to two years for all properties, which counteracts the previous government's increase.

However, new debt-to-income ratios (DTIs) and changes in loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) have had a negative impact. This picture would appear to be the same across most of the Harcourts offices across the country. As often happens in mid-winter, open home attendances are less than in the warmer more productive months, current economic challenges are exacerbating this seasonal trend.

Harcourts National Auction Manager, Shane Cortese advises that the Harcourts auction rooms are also in winter mode and while not as full as they have been throughout the first months of the year, many successes are being achieved with auction still providing the very best opportunity for a great result for sellers.

Interest rates are a topic of much speculation right across our country, much of the conversation is focused on “guessing” when we might see the Reserve Bank reducing the cash rate and allowing retail rates to reduce. The reality is most of the speculation is simply guesswork, so let’s focus on the facts. Interest rates appear to have peaked and have been at current levels for some time, even with all the volatility around the world. This means we can make decisions based on what we have today as likely a “worst case scenario” being bold now while others remain cautious would mirror advice from Warren Buffett (a sage voice we would suggest for those wishing to grow their investment worth!) so while we have no interest in adding to speculation about the interest rate environment; the future looks full of potential upside in this regard, so if you’re thinking of buying - now could be the perfect time to get busy, especially given the choice in the market.

At Harcourts, we believe that the springtime housing market will see an uplift in volume of sales, with more listings coming onto the market and buyers more confident about making a purchase. Spring is a favoured season for families to purchase homes, and as we know, the season is just weeks’ away. If you're contemplating buying or selling a home, it's advisable to take action sooner rather than later, as competition in the market is expected to intensify as the season advances.

If you are thinking about buying or selling a property in New Zealand, it is also important to get expert advice. A great real estate sales consultant will be able to help you navigate the current market conditions and find the right property for your needs, and the best buyer for your property.

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